Since 1984 (in Denmark and in the 1960ties in e.g. the USA) the
globalization has gradually but with accelerating speed reduced the industrial
production in “The Old Industrialized Countries” and simultaneously their
companies have become internationalized.
As the prevailing economic theories did not enable an adequate understanding
of what was happening, it was believed that the successful international
expansion of national companies was a sign of success for those nation states
too. It has now been proven that it is
only the activities taking place within a national economy that benefit
said country.
Due to that misconception, very loos economic policies were continued
resulting in a bubble. When the bubble burst in 2008 we saw the FIRST PHASE of
the crisis where especially the financial sector but also the business
community in general was severely hit.
All ideas of successful national
growth based on “nonphysical production” were suddenly abandoned and focus was
reoriented to just saving the old industrialised economic system. That was done through
the national states (FED, ECB and all the other central banks) taking over the
risk and some of the “bad loans”, and through the unprecedented low rates of
interest the bubble economy was then in fact continued. That was the SECOND
PHASE.
Due to the fact that the
old industrialized countries – especially in a time of crisis – still were the
most reliable economies, their currencies did not tumble, but due to their gradually
decreasing spending power they could not import quite as much from China and
the other newly industrialized countries as before. This resulted in a slowing
down of the mainly export oriented growth in e.g. China. This was the THIRD
PHASE.
Due to the national banks enormous
and continued outpouring of liquidity (especially the ECB and FED) an open
crisis was still prevented. Those three phases resulted never the less in a
global downturn, depressing raw material prices, especially the price of oil that
had seen a sharp production rise due to new shale oil technology. That was the
FOURTH PHASE.
Before the crisis China,
and the other newly industrialized counties and raw materials producing
countries and firms had seen a huge rise in their wealth. That surplus had in
great part been reinvested in the old industrialized countries. Now that the
crisis has hit China and others, two opposing trends are emerging . On the cooperate scale investments are being withdrawn from the old
industrialised counties to compensate for the economic reductions. On the national scale know how are being bought through private companies. On the
individual scale capital are pouring out of China and other second and third
world countries to safe havens in the old industrialized countries. Those opposing trends are still being
played out, but as they both are the result of the continued downturn the inevitable
result will be that the negative effects will spill over to the old
industrialized countries, that by now have stretched their ability to intervene.
That may be called the FIFTH PHASE of
the economic and production crisis
As said major crisis has still not been recognised but are explained as isolated events – economic crisis - China crisis - oil crisis - raw material crisis - corruption crisis - tax evasion crisis – and so on, the next phase the SIXTH PHASE where the general societal level in the old industrialized countries will be further reduced resulting in political troubles.
Such a development will probably (officially) also come as
a great surprise to the economists and the politicians.
The SIXTH PHASE has already
materialized in the form of BREXIT protest votes, the Trumph candidacy, Marine Le Pen in France and the general
chaotic political situations in the lesser developed EU countries!
While everybody still hope that the economic downturn somehow will stop, they have never the less started the EIGHT PHASE in the form of cyberwar, political misinformation and blackmailing. (See footnote)
By now March 2018 the 9th phase has materialized in the form of the old industrialized countries national intervention in business deals, in order to protect vital know how from being taken over by China.
The SEVENTH PHASE takes the form of protectionism as that is the logical
but primitive answer to the increasing desperation in the populations. This Development
can escalate into trade wars!
While everybody still hope that the economic downturn somehow will stop, they have never the less started the EIGHT PHASE in the form of cyberwar, political misinformation and blackmailing. (See footnote)
By now March 2018 the 9th phase has materialized in the form of the old industrialized countries national intervention in business deals, in order to protect vital know how from being taken over by China.
For a deeper understanding
of the basic economic mechanism go to:
“The fundamental causes of
the crisis”
“History is repeating
itself”
http://unifiedscience2.blogspot.dk/2014/03/history-repeat-itself.html
( ) Until the Second World War the dominating
powers went into direct military confrontations with each other. After the
Second World War, where atomic capabilities had been developed, the
confrontations were in the form of proxy wars (e.g. Cuba – South Africa in
Angola). That tool is still used, BUT now a further step has been developed in
the form of information war and blackmail attacks.
The positive aspect of this
development is that there now are one more – less violent – layer between the
confrontations of the great powers. Another positive aspect is that it by now
will be apparent to all involved that securing the digital flow is so vital
that it overrides the national intelligence convenience of a “big brother
society”! The key to a higher level of information security will probably be
the Blockchain technology!
The obvious answer to Russia and China from the (still dominating)
West will be to establish free of charge satellite connection to the whole world
thereby circumventing the censorship in Russia and China. As
the weak underbelly of the totalitarian states are the dissatisfactions of
their populations.
Technically it can be
done by making a blueprint available, a blueprint that describes the
simple construction of a device to put between a smartphone and the tele communication satellite system.